The broadband-hungry nation of India might just be waking up to realities. For starters, 2007 could well become the Preparatory Year of Wireless Broadband. Although the former Minister of Telecommunications in India proclaimed 2007 as the Year of Broadband for India, 2008 will instead become the Year of Wireless Broadband for India. Despite the unmet requirement to free bandwidth from various stakeholders, the key engines for broadband growth V the operators V are not willing to wait. Genuine Indian innovation is at work as vendors, operators, and system integrators are coming together like never before to work with whatever is available to trigger a bandwidth revolution.
In stark contrast, the Indian broadband sector continued to be filled with alternating moods of despair and hope as the government announced and postponed spectrum auctions with remarkable deftness. While the Year of Broadband campaigns remained on the agenda, service providers ended the year with more confusion than a clear BWA/WiMAX/3G strategy regarding where their businesses were headed. The top issue on every service providers' to-do list was: shore up more voice subscribers on 2G today - everything else can wait And so it did.
Some major facts
* The Indian BWA/WiMAX subscriber count added in the last year is well above 250,000.
* About 10,000 BWA/WiMAX base station sectors were deployed in 2008 alone.
* BWA/WiMAX ARPU for SMEs (small-to-mediumsized- enterprises) is in the range of Rs 2500 - Rs 5000 (US$50 to US$100)
* USB modem prices quoted to service providers in RFP responses were as low as US$35 - US$50 for even small volume shipments such as 150,000- 200,000.
* Effective charges applied by service providers to subscribers for stand alone CPEs ranged from free US$200, depending on tariff plans.
* Service provider approaches to BWA/WIMAX are mixed:
* BSNL, the incumbent with a clear lead time (likely one year) on pre-allocated pan-Indian 2.5GHz is likely to be the big driver of WiMAX.
* Operators such as Reliance and Tata have demonstrated what can be done by using slim 3.3GHz bands, and established the case for fixed WiMAX in India.
* Operators such as Bharti Airtel have taken demand-driven approach where they have extended coverage based on enterprise need/availability of fiber/DSL and feasibility of BWA/WiMAX.
* We estimate that WiMAX subscribers will reach 13.5 million by the end of 2013.
* By 2013, the non-WiMAX BWA subscriber count will be down to sub-million.
WiMAX has generated a lot of interest in India. Due to limited 3G spectrum and low broadband penetration, India is expected to be a key growth market for the technology. Many industry players believe that the allocation of broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum to private sector operators, expected in 2Q10, will open up attractive opportunities for the technology in the country. However, our analysis suggests that WiMAX will only serve a niche market rather than dominating the field.